With only three trading days remaining in the month, the EUR/USD holds above 1.07. Sure enough, it had traded with a bearish tone for several days, declining from above 1.10 to the current levels.
To some, the current EUR/USD exchange rate is way too elevated.
But a currency pair reflects the value of one currency in terms of another. If EUR/USD trades where it does, it is the result of supply and demand or the reflection of buyers’ and sellers’ position in the market.
It might very well be that the euro is overvalued. However, from a technical standpoint, one can build a bullish EUR/USD scenario at the current levels.
One Elliott Wave cycle appears to have completed
According to the Elliott Wave theory, a cycle is made of an impulsive and a corrective wave. More precisely, a five-wave structure followed by a three-wave one completes an Elliott cycle, and this is what one can see on the EUR/USD daily timeframe.
The market bottomed last October, when a massive rally started from below parity until the 1.10 area. That’s the impulsive wave. What followed is a classic a-b-c, a flat pattern, which appears to have ended or is about to end.
The time element favors more upside
One of the key factors when using the Elliott Waves theory is the time element. Equality in time for the impulsive and corrective waves often precedes a strong impulsive wave, an extended one.
It means that the EUR/USD should end a second wave (in red) around current levels before an extended third wave begins.
Fibonacci levels offer strong support
Finally, if one uses the Fibonacci retracement tool and measures the impulsive wave’s length, would notice that the 38.2% and 23.6% levels offered strong support for this market.
In other words, the flat pattern, or the a-b-c, appears to have a so-called “failure”, which is a strong sign of countertrend strength.
All in all, being short the EUR/USD here is risky. While fundamentally one can build a strong case against the euro, technically, this might be just the place where EUR/USD builds energy for another leg higher.