Bernstein analysts believe the current bull market started in Q4 2023, driven by expectations of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the US.
This momentum took Bitcoin from $25,000 to $46,000 by the time ETFs launched on January 11, 2024.
Strong ETF inflows further fueled the rally, pushing Bitcoin to an all-time high of $74,000, before a multi-month consolidation.
The next major catalyst, according to Bernstein, came after Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024.
His pro-crypto stance and promises to establish the US as the “crypto capital of the world” led to Bitcoin hitting a fresh record of $109,000 on Inauguration Day in January 2025.
The brokerage firm now thinks that investors should prepare themselves for the next leg of Bitcoin’s bull run.
Trump’s crypto push
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani believe multiple factors are now setting up the next phase of Bitcoin’s bull market.
Key among them is the Crypto Task Force, led by David Sacks, which is working on a National Bitcoin Reserve under Trump’s direction.
The administration has also announced plans for a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), which Bernstein expects to consider US crypto companies as strategic assets.
Such a Bitcoin reserve, the analysts speculate, could be funded by the Federal Reserve or the US Treasury.
However, the Fed would need legislative approval, potentially financing the reserve via new debt issuance or gold sales.
Additionally, the US government holds $20 billion worth of seized Bitcoin, which could be added to the reserve, sparking a global race among sovereigns to accumulate Bitcoin.
Additional catalysts for Bitcoin’s growth
Beyond policy developments, Bernstein highlights growing institutional adoption as a key driver.
Recent 13F filings with the SEC revealed that Mubadala, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, invested $437 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Paul Tudor Jones’ firm all increased their Bitcoin positions.
MicroStrategy purchased $742 million worth of Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 478,740 BTC, valued at $46 billion.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have reached $5 billion year-to-date, with forecasts suggesting they could rise to $60 billion in 2025.
Additionally, the SEC’s repeal of SAB 121 now allows banks to provide crypto custody, further strengthening institutional adoption.
Apart from this, as reported earlier more than 15 US states have begun legislative efforts to integrate Bitcoin into their financial frameworks, citing benefits such as economic diversification, inflation hedging, and technological innovation.
Utah has taken a leading role in this movement, with its House Bill 230 advancing through the House on February 6 and now awaiting Senate approval.
The growing legislative momentum across U.S. states signals promising developments for Bitcoin.
With growing adoption by banks, institutions, and sovereigns, Bernstein sees Bitcoin emerging as a clear alternative to gold.
The research firm highlights that Bitcoin’s market value stands at $2 trillion, compared to $18 trillion for proven gold reserves, leaving significant upside potential for Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory.
The post What will drive the next leg of Bitcoin bull run? Bernstein highlights catalysts appeared first on Invezz
